Header image courtesy of photographer Alisa Matthews.
With spring quickly approaching, it’s a great time to discuss what could lie ahead for the Hawaii real estate market, including in the luxury category.
In doing this analysis, I often think about an old saying attributed to Confucius: Study the past if you would divine the future.
In my 25-year career in real estate, I’ve found it very valuable to take into consideration past results – including seasonal trends – in helping buyers and sellers navigate the market.
Based on recent trends along with my expertise, I think the interest and competition for single-family homes could rise while condos – particularly older buildings, which require major upgrades that will be absorbed by owners – may remain stable.
The spring season we’re entering is traditionally when interest in real estate picks up across the country and it’s no different here in Hawaii. Besides improved weather that generates more activity, there is the end of the tax season, where investors can identify new properties to purchase, often using the 1031 exchange to defer capital gains.
There are other factors at play that I think will support a solid real estate market. This includes:
- An improving interest rate environment, which is helping make real estate more affordable
- An aging demographic, with more people locking in equity from their long-time homes and downsizing to help enjoy the next chapter of their lives
- Low inventory of single-family homes here on the Island of Oahu
For renters, buying a property may be a good long-term move. As this recent Kiplinger’s article noted, rents in Honolulu are well above the national average, so in some cases, it makes more sense to invest in a property instead of continuing to rent.
Based on last year’s activity and the first two months of 2026, I am expecting more interest in single-family homes. Last year, I encountered several instances where bidding wars occurred, and I expect the same thing this year with international buyers and also people moving from states like California to Hawaii entering the market.
It’s important to note that price points and interest in properties can vary widely. While Oahu is a small island, it features numerous neighborhoods, each with their have distinctive characteristics and attributes.
Two neighborhoods I am tracking and know very well are Waialae-Kahala and Manoa. Here’s why.
Waialae-Kahala
If you have watched the annual Sony Open, you are familiar with Waialae. However, catching coverage or clips of the annual golf tournament doesn’t do this area justice.
While the Waialae Country Club and surrounding area is indeed beautiful and a drawing card for many locals and tourists, it has much more going for it. Whether it’s beautiful beaches or desirable properties sitting on Waialae Nui Ridge, Waialae-Iki Ridge, or Hawaii Loa Ridge that feature beautiful ocean views, listings in this area always draw strong interest.
Nearby Kahala – which has been described as the Beverly Hills of Hawaii – is also in perennial demand due to its beachfront properties and nearby access to Waikiki.
It’s for these reasons and many more that 2025 data noted that the median price of home sales rose 12 per cent to $2.66 million, and 28 per cent of sales involved a final closing above the list price. Similar figures are being recorded in early 2026.
Manoa
Manoa is known for its natural beauty and a lush, rainy valley climate. It also enjoys a respected academic community with the University of Hawaii at Manoa and the prestigious Punahou private school which is considered one of the premier private schools in the country.
Whether it’s taking advantage of nature to stay active or enjoy many nearby amenities such as several small boutique shops, restaurants, and the Manoa Valley Theatre, this area is also always in demand.
The median price of single-family homes in this area last year was $1.6 million – down slightly from the year before. However, closing prices usually increased by 30 per cent compared to list, demonstrating the strong desire to live in the community
Where’s the market heading?
That’s a question anyone interested in real estate usually asks me. Since no one has an accurate crystal ball, the reality is that no one really knows. However, based on my expertise and a wealth of data I have access to, I think 2026 is shaping up to be another banner year.
If you currently live in Hawaii or are considering moving here, the first step is to connect with me. I can assess your wish list and budget and provide some recommendations.
It’s the combination of my expertise and dedication to customer service that earned me two awards at a recent Locations Hawaii event. While I was honored to receive these awards, I take greater pride in all of the people I have helped over the years discover their first home in Hawaii or settle elsewhere as they enjoy the next stage of their life. I’m always grateful when they share their appreciation.
If you are interested in learning more about real estate in Hawaii, don’t hesitate to contact me through the channel that’s most convenient for you, whether it’s by phone, email, or WeChat. I would love to help make your dream a reality.
